20-21

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Sun Jan 17, 2021

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p>There are two buried persistent weak layers that make avalanches possible to trigger. I found both in Beehive Basin yesterday and discuss them in <strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hQdnhL3jRo&amp;list=PLXu5151nmAvQDzKmH… video</a></strong>. Right now the scariest layer is weak, sugary snow near the ground, buried 2-3 feet&nbsp;deep (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/21/giant-depth-hoar-throne"><strong>… of crystals</strong></a>). Over the last couple weeks we saw large human triggered and natural avalanches break on this layer (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/avalanche-activity">avalanche log</a></strong>). In addition, a new weak layer of surface hoar is buried 3-6” below recent snow. New snow this afternoon and tomorrow might avalanche easily on this surface hoar layer.</p>

<p>The very weak snow near the ground is slow to gain strength and the snowpack remains unstable. Without recent loading, the chances of triggering an avalanche on this layer have decreased and signs of instability like collapsing and “whumphing” are less common. Unfortunately, this means the instability is less obvious and we might not detect it. This type of snowpack can break after multiple tracks cross a slope. It might avalanche on one slope, but remain in place and appear stable on an adjacent similar slope. Although likelihood has decreased, it is possible to trigger a large avalanche on this weak layer. Thorough snowpack assessment and cautious terrain selection are essential to travel in avalanche terrain. Our best strategy to avoid a large avalanche is to avoid travel on and underneath slopes steeper than 30 degrees. Today the avalanche danger is MODERATE. Expect danger to rise if heavy snowfall and strong wind load slopes this afternoon.</p>

<p>Near Cooke City, a layer of surface hoar buried 4-6” deep has been reactive in stability tests, and yesterday a skier intentionally triggered a small slab on this layer (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/21/ski-cut-small-slab-sh">photo</a><…;). Today avalanches triggered on this layer may be small, but new snow and wind during the next 24 hours will make slabs larger and easy to trigger on this weak layer. An additional concern is weak, sugary snow buried 2-3 feet deep. Skiers triggered avalanches on this layer last week (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/23644"><strong>Fin avalanche</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/23731"><strong>ski-cut north of Cooke</strong></a>), and some natural avalanches broke earlier this week (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/23788">details and photos</a></strong>). These weak layers are not on all slopes, so it is worth digging to check for them before riding steep slopes, and to track where they exist.</p>

<p>Expect danger to rise with the next round of snow later today. Plan to ride terrain that that accounts for stability to decrease this afternoon. Today the avalanche danger is MODERATE.</p>

<p>If you get out, please send us your observations no matter how brief. You can submit them via our <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation"><strong>website<…;, email (<a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com"><strong>mtavalanche@gmail.com</strong></a…;), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>

Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events

See our education calendar for an up-to-date list of all local classes. Here are a few select upcoming events and opportunities to check out:

Tin Cup Pass-Mt. Jefferson-Centennials

Date
Activity
Snowmobiling

Snow above the rain crust is starting to become more of a cohesive slab. No recent avalanches were observed.

Region
Island Park
Location (from list)
CENTENNIAL RANGE
Observer Name
Chris Hericks

Divide Basin, Hyalite

Date
Activity
Skiing

Saw this natural avalanche on a southeast aspect in Divide Basin.

Region
Northern Gallatin
Location (from list)
Divide Cirque
Observer Name
S Wilson