20-21

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Sat Jan 16, 2021

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p>New snow favored the Bridger Range and Hyalite with 3-4” equal to 0.3-0.5” of snow water equivalent (SWE). Moderate west wind drifted this snow into fresh slabs which add weight to an unstable snowpack and create dangerous avalanche conditions. Weak, sugary snow that formed during recent months of cold, dry weather is buried 2-3 feet deep (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/21/giant-depth-hoar-throne"><strong>… of crystals</strong></a>),&nbsp;produced large avalanches during the last couple weeks, and is not getting stronger (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/23678">Large skier triggered slide in Hyalite</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/23771">natural avalanches in Bridgers</a></strong>). In addition to avalanches breaking deep and wide on sugary weak layers, you can also trigger fresh drifts along ridgelines. Although relatively smaller, these wind slabs can be harmful, especially in terrain with higher consequences.&nbsp;They could also trigger deeper avalanches. Today the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on wind-loaded slopes and MODERATE on non-wind loaded slopes.</p>

<p>In the Madison Range, southern Gallatin Range and Lionhead area near West Yellowstone we have documented many recent avalanches and signs of instability on sugary weak layers buried 2-3 feet deep (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/avalanche-activity">avalanche log</a></strong>, <strong><u><a href="https://youtu.be/Feyz2_4aNmU">video from Lionhead</a></u></strong>, <strong><u><a href="https://youtu.be/XzPIY1Q1cKo">video from Bacon Rind</a></u></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLXu5151nmAvQDzKmH5K3ZS8Gg3DzwsZ3… videos</a></strong>). The mountains also now have a layer of feathery surface hoar buried 6-12” deep, below snow that fell Tuesday-Wednesday. It is worth digging to see if this layer exists prior to traveling on steep slopes, and to test if it will be a problem with more snow. On Thursday, Dave was in Taylor Fork and documented 10 avalanches which broke under the new snow (<a href="https://youtu.be/ZKzc9qpSNhs"><strong>video</strong></a&gt;, <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/23795"><strong>details and photos</strong></a>). Today&nbsp;two buried weak layers make avalanches possible to trigger. Careful snowpack evaluation and cautious route finding are essential. The avalanche danger is rated MODERATE.</p>

<p>In the mountains near Cooke City, sustained strong wind earlier this week stripped slopes of new snow and piled thick drifts on other slopes. Natural avalanches were triggered during this loading event (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/23788">photo and details</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/21/natural-avalanche-south-cooke">ph…;). These and skier triggered avalanches last week (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/23644">Fin avalanche</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/23731">ski-cut north of Cooke</a></strong>) are good reminders that some slopes have unstable buried weak layers. Our main concern is a layer of sugary facets buried 2-3’ deep. Now in addition, the recent snowfall buried a weak layer of surface hoar (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/21/surface-hoar-henderson-bench"><st…;) that may avalanche with the next few storms. Skiers got this layer to break clean in their stability test on Thursday. These layers are not on all slopes, so it is a good idea to dig to look for them before riding steep slopes, and to track their location as they could avalanche with the next round of snow. Today, buried weak layers make avalanches possible to trigger and avalanche danger is MODERATE.</p>

<p>If you get out, please send us your observations no matter how brief. You can submit them via our <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation"><strong>website<…;, email (<a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com"><strong>mtavalanche@gmail.com</strong></a…;), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>

Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events

See our education calendar for an up-to-date list of all local classes. Here are a few select upcoming events and opportunities to check out:

Cooke City-Republic Peak

Date
Activity
Skiing

Hi guys it has been a long time since I have submitted an observation but I have been keeping all of you in my heart during a very stressful season and I sincerely hope you are all doing ok. Today I went out and skied with two friends (Laura will probably submit her observations too) outside of Cooke City we went and skied up onto Republic Peak via the trailhead and climbed up and skied on some north facing stuff. I attached a photo of the route. We all talked a lot before, during, and after the tour about erring on the side of caution given the big picture snowpack this season, regardless of the fact that we went to Cooke because it seems to be more stable than anywhere else. I flat out refused to consider going into avalanche terrain and even put up a hard boundary on anything over 30 degrees, which we were able to stick to on this route and got to climb the peak AND ski some great powder lower down on a beautiful day. We dug a pit at 9377’ and got an ECTP 21 Q3 on a N facing slope that was 24 degrees in a clearing in the trees. The shear happened 55cm down and the snowpack was 2 meters deep at that spot. This feedback reinforced our decision to keep things conservative and we proceeded up to the peak without incident, sticking to slopes no steeper than 28 degrees and then skied back down to around 9000’ and did a couple of laps. On the final lap I did trigger a break in a concave gulley that cracked all the way across where it was wind loaded but did not move probably because the slope was not steep enough. That and some isolated whoomphing and some wind scoured hard slabs above 9800’ were the most obvious feedback we got from that area today. Slopes that are west facing have been heavily wind scoured and we observed heavy loading and cross loading on E faces primarily, I attached some photos of this. And also a beautiful shot of a large avalanche path (not active now) coming down off the Sirens. A good day and I want to thank you all so much for all the information and hard work this season and always, I (and my friends) greatly appreciate everything you do!!!!!

Region
Cooke City
Observer Name
Jeanine Dalimata

Hyalite

Date
Activity
Ice Climbing

Got a look round while climbing Cleo’s today. Extensive scouring, lots of exposed rock and dirt in the main fork. I observed the slope below the N Face of Palace Butte to be heavily wind effected as well (N aspect, around 9k). No surprises really. The wind took down a lot of mature timber!

Region
Northern Gallatin
Observer Name
Sam H

Southern Madison range - Telemark Meadows area

Date
Activity
Skiing

Skiing low angle powder at Telemark Meadows today (-8 F starting out; warmed to about 22 F with pretty constant wind blowing). Good conditions.

Several major collapses skinning up along the forest edge. The freezing rain crust from December 19 is now about 24-30" below the surface. Depth hoar below the freezing rain crust.

Region
Southern Madison
Location (from list)
Telemark Meadows
Observer Name
Alan Crawford